An investigation of the modulation of charge transport through thin films of n-octanethiolate monolayer-protected gold nanoparticles (MPN) induced by the sorption of organic vapors is presented. A model is derived that allows predictions of MPN-coated chemiresistor (CR) responses from vapor-film partition coefficients, and analyte densities and dielectric constants. Calibrations with vapors of 28 compounds collected from an array of CRs and a parallel thickness-shear-mode resonator are used to verify assumptions inherent in the model and to assess its performance. Results afford insights into the nature of the vapor-MPN interactions, including systematic variations in apparent film swelling efficiencies, and show that the model can predict CR responses typically to within 24%. Using CRs of different dimensions, vapor sensitivities are found to be virtually independent of the MPN film volume over a range of 104 (device-area x MPN layer thickness). Sensitivities vary inversely with analyte vapor pressure similarly for the two sensor types, but the CR sensor affords significantly greater signal-to-noise ratios, yielding calculated detection limits in the low-part-per-billion concentration range for several of the analytes tested. The implications of these results for implementing MPN-coated CR arrays as detectors in microanalytical systems are considered.