Extinction debt and windows of conservation opportunity in the Brazilian Amazon

Science. 2012 Jul 13;337(6091):228-32. doi: 10.1126/science.1219013.

Abstract

Predicting when future species extinctions will occur is necessary for directing conservation investments but has proved difficult. We developed a new method for predicting extinctions over time, accounting for the timing and magnitude of habitat loss. We applied this to the Brazilian Amazon, predicting that local extinctions of forest-dependent vertebrate species have thus far been minimal (1% of species by 2008), with more than 80% of extinctions expected to be incurred from historical habitat loss still to come. Realistic deforestation scenarios suggest that local regions will lose an average of nine vertebrate species and have a further 16 committed to extinction by 2050. There is a window of opportunity to dilute the legacy of historical deforestation by concentrating conservation efforts in areas with greatest debt.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Amphibians
  • Animals
  • Birds
  • Brazil
  • Conservation of Natural Resources*
  • Ecosystem*
  • Extinction, Biological*
  • Mammals
  • Monte Carlo Method
  • Time Factors
  • Trees*
  • Vertebrates*