Moving into protected areas? Setting conservation priorities for Romanian reptiles and amphibians at risk from climate change

Viorel D Popescu; Laurenţiu Rozylowicz; Dan Cogălniceanu; Iulian Mihăiţă Niculae; Adina Livia Cucu

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0079330

Moving into protected areas? Setting conservation priorities for Romanian reptiles and amphibians at risk from climate change

PLoS One. 2013 Nov 4;8(11):e79330. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0079330. eCollection 2013.

Authors

Viorel D Popescu¹, Laurenţiu Rozylowicz, Dan Cogălniceanu, Iulian Mihăiţă Niculae, Adina Livia Cucu

Affiliation

¹ Earth to Ocean Research Group, Department of Biological Sciences, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, British Columbia, Canada ; Centre for Environmental Research (CCMESI), University of Bucharest, Bucharest, Romania.

Abstract

Rapid climate change represents one of the top threats to biodiversity, causing declines and extinctions of many species. Range shifts are a key response, but in many cases are incompatible with the current extent of protected areas. In this study we used ensemble species distribution models to identify range changes for 21 reptile and 16 amphibian species in Romania for the 2020s and 2050s time horizons under three emission scenarios (A1B = integrated world, rapid economic growth, A2A = divided world, rapid economic growth [realistic scenario], B2A = regional development, environmentally-friendly scenario) and no- and limited-dispersal assumptions. We then used irreplaceability analysis to test the efficacy of the Natura 2000 network to meet conservation targets. Under all scenarios and time horizons, 90% of the species suffered range contractions (greatest loses under scenarios B2A for 2020s, and A1B for 2050s), and four reptile species expanded their ranges. Two reptile and two amphibian species are predicted to completely lose climate space by 2050s. Currently, 35 species do not meet conservation targets (>40% representation in protected areas), but the target is predicted to be met for 4 - 14 species under future climate conditions, with higher representation under the limited-dispersal scenario. The Alpine and Steppic-Black Sea biogeographic regions have the highest irreplaceability value, and act as climate refugia for many reptiles and amphibians. The Natura 2000 network performs better for achieving herpetofauna conservation goals in the future, owing to the interaction between drastic range contractions, and range shifts towards existing protected areas. Thus, conservation actions for herpetofauna in Romania need to focus on: (1) building institutional capacity of protected areas in the Alpine and Steppic-Black Sea biogeographic regions, and (2) facilitating natural range shifts by improving the conservation status of herpetofauna outside protected areas, specifically in traditionally-managed landscapes and abandoned cropland.

Publication types

Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

Amphibians*
Animals
Climate Change*
Conservation of Natural Resources*
Models, Theoretical
Reptiles*
Romania

Grants and funding

This work was supported by a grant of the Romanian National Authority for Scientific Research, CNCS – UEFISCDI (http://uefiscdi.gov.ro), project number PN-II-RU-TE-2011-3-0183. VDP was partly supported by a David H. Smith Conservation Research Fellowship from the Society for Conservation Biology (www.smithfellows.org). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.