Prognostic value of exercise capacity in patients with coronary artery disease: the FIT (Henry Ford ExercIse Testing) project

Objective: To examine the prognostic value of exercise capacity in patients with nonrevascularized and revascularized coronary artery disease (CAD) seen in routine clinical practice.

Patients and methods: We analyzed 9852 adults with known CAD (mean ± SD age, 61±12 years; 69% men [n=6836], 31% black race [n=3005]) from The Henry Ford ExercIse Testing (FIT) Project, a retrospective cohort study of patients who underwent physician-referred stress testing at a single health care system between January 1, 1991, and May 31, 2009. Patients were categorized by revascularization status (nonrevascularized, percutaneous coronary intervention [PCI], or coronary artery bypass graft [CABG] surgery) and by metabolic equivalents (METs) achieved on stress testing. Using Cox regression models, hazard ratios for mortality, myocardial infarction (MI), and downstream revascularizations were calculated after adjusting for potential confounders, including cardiac risk factors, pertinent medications, and stress testing indication.

Results: There were 3824 all-cause deaths during median follow-up of 11.5 years. In addition, 1880 MIs, and 1930 revascularizations were ascertained. Each 1-MET increment in exercise capacity was associated with a hazard ratio (95% CI) of 0.87 (0.85-0.89), 0.87 (0.85-0.90), and 0.86 (0.84-0.89) for mortality; 0.98 (0.96-1.01), 0.88 (0.84-0.92), and 0.93 (0.90-0.97) for MI; and 0.94 (0.92-0.96), 0.91 (0.88-0.95), and 0.96 (0.92-0.99) for downstream revascularizations in the nonrevascularized, PCI, and CABG groups, respectively. In each MET category, the nonrevascularized group had similar mortality risk as and higher MI and downstream revascularization risk than the PCI and CABG surgery groups (P<.05).

Conclusion: Exercise capacity was a strong predictor of mortality, MI, and downstream revascularizations in this cohort. Furthermore, patients with similar exercise capacities had an equivalent mortality risk, irrespective of baseline revascularization status.