A Decision Support System Coupling Fuzzy Logic and Probabilistic Graphical Approaches for the Agri-Food Industry: Prediction of Grape Berry Maturity

PLoS One. 2015 Jul 31;10(7):e0134373. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0134373. eCollection 2015.

Abstract

Agri-food is one of the most important sectors of the industry and a major contributor to the global warming potential in Europe. Sustainability issues pose a huge challenge for this sector. In this context, a big issue is to be able to predict the multiscale dynamics of those systems using computing science. A robust predictive mathematical tool is implemented for this sector and applied to the wine industry being easily able to be generalized to other applications. Grape berry maturation relies on complex and coupled physicochemical and biochemical reactions which are climate dependent. Moreover one experiment represents one year and the climate variability could not be covered exclusively by the experiments. Consequently, harvest mostly relies on expert predictions. A big challenge for the wine industry is nevertheless to be able to anticipate the reactions for sustainability purposes. We propose to implement a decision support system so called FGRAPEDBN able to (1) capitalize the heterogeneous fragmented knowledge available including data and expertise and (2) predict the sugar (resp. the acidity) concentrations with a relevant RMSE of 7 g/l (resp. 0.44 g/l and 0.11 g/kg). FGRAPEDBN is based on a coupling between a probabilistic graphical approach and a fuzzy expert system.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
  • Validation Study

MeSH terms

  • Climate Change
  • Expert Systems*
  • Food Industry*
  • Fuzzy Logic*
  • Probability*
  • Vitis*

Grants and funding

This work is a result of phd thesis funded by INTERLOIRE. The funder “InterLoire” participated to the definition of the study, the collect of data and result analysis. Etienne Goulet (co-author of paper) is the technical director of the French organisation “InterLoire”.