Carotid stiffness is associated with incident stroke: a systematic review and individual participant data meta-analysis

Background: Carotid stiffening is considered a key element in the pathogenesis of stroke. However, results of studies evaluating the association between carotid stiffness and incident stroke have been inconsistent.

Objectives: This study investigated whether carotid stiffness (as determined by ultrasonography) is associated with incident stroke and whether this association is independent of aortic stiffness as estimated by carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity (cfPWV). Additionally, we evaluated the incremental value of carotid stiffness for stroke risk prediction beyond Framingham risk factors and cfPWV.

Methods: This study included a systematic review and meta-analyses of aggregate and individual participant data (IPD), the latter of which was obtained by requesting individual-level data of all cohort studies with available data on carotid stiffness and cfPWV.

Results: Ten studies (n = 22,472) were included in the aggregate data meta-analysis and 4 (n = 4,540) in the IPD meta-analysis. After adjusting for cardiovascular (CV) factors, the aggregate data meta-analysis showed that greater carotid stiffness (per SD) was associated with stroke (hazard ratio: 1.18; 95% confidence interval: 1.05 to 1.33). In addition, carotid stiffness was associated with total CV events and CV and all-cause mortality, but not with coronary heart disease events. In the IPD meta-analysis, additional adjustment for cfPWV did not materially change these associations. Carotid stiffness did improve stroke risk prediction beyond Framingham and cfPWV (integrative discrimination improvement: 0.4 percentage point [95% confidence interval: 0.1 to 0.6 percentage point] and continuous net reclassification improvement: 18.6% [95% confidence interval: 5.8% to 31.3%]).

Conclusions: Carotid stiffness is associated with incident stroke independently of CV factors and aortic stiffness. In addition, carotid stiffness improves stroke risk prediction beyond Framingham and aortic stiffness.