Application of Epidemiology Model on Complex Networks in Propagation Dynamics of Airspace Congestion

PLoS One. 2016 Jun 23;11(6):e0157945. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0157945. eCollection 2016.

Abstract

This paper presents a propagation dynamics model for congestion propagation in complex networks of airspace. It investigates the application of an epidemiology model to complex networks by comparing the similarities and differences between congestion propagation and epidemic transmission. The model developed satisfies the constraints of actual motion in airspace, based on the epidemiology model. Exploiting the constraint that the evolution of congestion cluster in the airspace is always dynamic and heterogeneous, the SIR epidemiology model (one of the classical models in epidemic spreading) with logistic increase is applied to congestion propagation and shown to be more accurate in predicting the evolution of congestion peak than the model based on probability, which is common to predict the congestion propagation. Results from sample data show that the model not only predicts accurately the value and time of congestion peak, but also describes accurately the characteristics of congestion propagation. Then, a numerical study is performed in which it is demonstrated that the structure of the networks have different effects on congestion propagation in airspace. It is shown that in regions with severe congestion, the adjustment of dissipation rate is more significant than propagation rate in controlling the propagation of congestion.

MeSH terms

  • Algorithms
  • Aviation*
  • Computer Simulation
  • Humans
  • Models, Theoretical*

Grants and funding

This work is partially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NO. 71301074), and supported by ‘the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities’ (NO. NJ20150029). Wen Tian, one of the authors, received the funding. The specific role of this author is articulated in the ‘author contributions’ section. The funders had an important role in study design and data collection.