Comparative analysis of zonal systems for macro-level crash modeling

Introduction: Macro-level traffic safety analysis has been undertaken at different spatial configurations. However, clear guidelines for the appropriate zonal system selection for safety analysis are unavailable. In this study, a comparative analysis was conducted to determine the optimal zonal system for macroscopic crash modeling considering census tracts (CTs), state-wide traffic analysis zones (STAZs), and a newly developed traffic-related zone system labeled traffic analysis districts (TADs).

Method: Poisson lognormal models for three crash types (i.e., total, severe, and non-motorized mode crashes) are developed based on the three zonal systems without and with consideration of spatial autocorrelation. The study proposes a method to compare the modeling performance of the three types of geographic units at different spatial configurations through a grid based framework. Specifically, the study region is partitioned to grids of various sizes and the model prediction accuracy of the various macro models is considered within these grids of various sizes.

Results: These model comparison results for all crash types indicated that the models based on TADs consistently offer a better performance compared to the others. Besides, the models considering spatial autocorrelation outperform the ones that do not consider it.

Conclusions: Based on the modeling results and motivation for developing the different zonal systems, it is recommended using CTs for socio-demographic data collection, employing TAZs for transportation demand forecasting, and adopting TADs for transportation safety planning.

Practical applications: The findings from this study can help practitioners select appropriate zonal systems for traffic crash modeling, which leads to develop more efficient policies to enhance transportation safety.