Initial level and rate of change in grip strength predict all-cause mortality in very old adults

Objective: to investigate the associations between initial level and rate of change in grip strength (GS) and all-cause mortality in very old adults (≥85 years) over a 9.6-year follow-up.

Methods: prospective mortality data from 845 participants in the Newcastle 85+ Study were analysed for survival in relation to GS (kg, baseline and 5-year mean change) using Cox proportional hazards models.

Results: during the follow-up, 636 (75.3%) participants died. Higher baseline GS was associated with a decreased risk of mortality in all participants [hazard ratio (HR) = 0.95, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.93-0.98, P < 0.001], men (HR = 0.97, 95% CI: 0.95-0.99, P = 0.009) and women (HR = 0.96, 95% CI: 0.94-0.99, P = 0.007) after adjustment for health, lifestyle and anthropometric factors. Overall GS slope had a downward trajectory and was determined in 602 participants: 451 experienced constant decline (negative slope) and 151 had increasing GS (positive slope) over time. Men and women with a negative slope had a 16 and 33% increased risk of mortality, respectively, with every kg/year decline in GS (P ≤ 0.005), and participants with a positive slope had a 31% decreased risk of mortality (P = 0.03) irrespective of baseline GS and key covariates.

Conclusion: higher baseline GS and 5-year increase in GS were protective of mortality, whilst GS decline was associated with an increased risk of mortality in the very old over 9.6 years, especially in women. These results add to the biological and clinical importance of GS as a powerful predictor of long-term survival in late life.