Spatiotemporal analysis of PM_2.5 and pancreatic cancer mortality in China

Background: Previous studies have reported that the development of pancreatic cancer (PC) may be associated with environment pollution. But the relationship between ambient air pollution and PC remains unclear.

Objectives: This study aimed to examine the association between PC mortality and exposure of fine particular matter.

Methods: We used PC mortality data from 103 continuous points in national Disease Surveillance Point system from 1991 to 2009 in China. The annual concentrations of PM_2.5 at 0.1° × 0.1° spatial resolution for each points were estimated based on the context of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015. A spatial age-period-cohort model was used to examine the relative risks of PC mortality associated with PM exposure, after adjusting gender, urban/rural status, spatial variation as well as age, period and cohort effect.

Results: The relative risks of PC mortality related to 10 μg/m³ increase of PM_2.5 were 1.16 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.13, 1.20) for all the population, 1.08 (1.05,1.13) for those aged 40-64 years, 1.21 (1.17,1.25) for those aged 65-84 years, 1.14 (1.10,1.18) for the male, 1.19 (1.14,1.24) for the female, 1.23 (1.16,1.30) for the urban population and 1.29 (1.22, 1.37) for the rural population.

Conclusions: Ambient PM_2.5 may raise the risk of mortality from PC, especially in older population. Pollution control policy should be further strengthened to reduce the health damages.