Detecting time-evolving phenotypic topics via tensor factorization on electronic health records: Cardiovascular disease case study

Objective: Discovering subphenotypes of complex diseases can help characterize disease cohorts for investigative studies aimed at developing better diagnoses and treatments. Recent advances in unsupervised machine learning on electronic health record (EHR) data have enabled researchers to discover phenotypes without input from domain experts. However, most existing studies have ignored time and modeled diseases as discrete events. Uncovering the evolution of phenotypes - how they emerge, evolve and contribute to health outcomes - is essential to define more precise phenotypes and refine the understanding of disease progression. Our objective was to assess the benefits of an unsupervised approach that incorporates time to model diseases as dynamic processes in phenotype discovery.

Methods: In this study, we applied a constrained non-negative tensor-factorization approach to characterize the complexity of cardiovascular disease (CVD) patient cohort based on longitudinal EHR data. Through tensor-factorization, we identified a set of phenotypic topics (i.e., subphenotypes) that these patients established over the 10 years prior to the diagnosis of CVD, and showed the progress pattern. For each identified subphenotype, we examined its association with the risk for adverse cardiovascular outcomes estimated by the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Pooled Cohort Risk Equations, a conventional CVD-risk assessment tool frequently used in clinical practice. Furthermore, we compared the subsequent myocardial infarction (MI) rates among the six most prevalent subphenotypes using survival analysis.

Results: From a cohort of 12,380 adult CVD individuals with 1068 unique PheCodes, we successfully identified 14 subphenotypes. Through the association analysis with estimated CVD risk for each subtype, we found some phenotypic topics such as Vitamin D deficiency and depression, Urinary infections cannot be explained by the conventional risk factors. Through a survival analysis, we found markedly different risks of subsequent MI following the diagnosis of CVD among the six most prevalent topics (p < 0.0001), indicating these topics may capture clinically meaningful subphenotypes of CVD.

Conclusion: This study demonstrates the potential benefits of using tensor-decomposition to model diseases as dynamic processes from longitudinal EHR data. Our results suggest that this data-driven approach may potentially help researchers identify complex and chronic disease subphenotypes in precision medicine research.