Weather, ambient air pollution, and risk of migraine headache onset among patients with migraine

Objective: Migraine is a common recurrent headache disorder affecting 14% American adults. Although weather and air pollution are often reported by patients with migraine as precipitating factors, previous studies have had mixed results.

Methods: We prospectively collected migraine headache onset data using electronic questionnaires from 98 adults with episodic migraine in the Greater Boston area (2016-2017). Each participant was followed for an average of 45 days for a total of 4406 days of observation. Temperature, relative humidity, and barometric pressure data were obtained from local weather station. Daily average fine particulate matter, daily maximum 1-hour sulfur dioxide, daily maximum 1-hour nitrogen dioxide, daily maximum 8-hour ozone, and daily maximum 8-hour carbon monoxide from local air pollution monitors. We conducted a repeated measures analysis using fixed effects logistic regression models. In the models we adjusted for day of week, a natural cubic spline term of day of the year with 4 degrees of freedom, and a participant identifier. We additionally adjusted for linear terms of temperature and relative humidity in the air pollution analyses. We also applied logistic regression models with generalized estimating equation (GEE) and autoregressive correlation structure in the sensitivity analysis.

Results: The mean age was 35 years and 88% were women. Mean temperature was 56.9 °F, relative humidity 67.3%, and fine particulate matter 7.3 μg/m³. Higher relative humidity was associated with higher odds of migraine headache, but the association was only observed in warm season (April-September). Higher levels of daily maximum 8-hour ozone and daily maximum 8-hour carbon monoxide appeared to be associated with higher odds of migraine headache onset in cold season (October-March). Although the associations for ozone and relative humidity were attenuated and no longer statistically significant in the overall GEE analysis, the differing associations by season remained.

Conclusions: We found that higher relative humidity was associated with higher odds of migraine headache onset in warm season, and traffic-related gaseous pollutants may be associated with higher odds of migraine headache onset in cold season.