Purpose: To develop a risk score for patients with advanced systemic mastocytosis (AdvSM) that integrates clinical and mutation characteristics.
Patients and methods: The study included 383 patients with AdvSM from the German Registry on Disorders of Eosinophils and Mast Cells (training set; n = 231) and several centers for mastocytosis in the United States and Europe, all within the European Competence Network on Mastocytosis (validation set; n = 152). A Cox multivariable model was used to select variables that were predictive of overall survival (OS).
Results: In multivariable analysis, the following risk factors were identified as being associated with OS: age greater than 60 years, anemia (hemoglobin < 10 g/dL), thrombocytopenia (platelets < 100 × 109/L), presence of one high molecular risk gene mutation (ie, in SRSF2, ASXL1, and/or RUNX1), and presence of two or more high molecular risk gene mutations. By assigning hazard ratio-weighted points to these variables, the following three risk categories were defined: low risk (median OS, not reached), intermediate risk (median OS, 3.9 years; 95% CI, 2.1 to 5.7 years), and high risk (median OS, 1.9 years; 95% CI, 1.3 to 2.6 years; P < .001). The mutation-adjusted risk score (MARS) was independent of the WHO classification and was confirmed in the independent validation set. During a median follow-up time of 2.2 years (range, 0 to 23 years), 63 (16%) of 383 patients experienced a leukemic transformation to secondary mast cell leukemia (32%) or secondary acute myeloid leukemia (68%). The MARS was also predictive for leukemia-free survival (P < .001).
Conclusion: The MARS is a validated, five-parameter, WHO-independent prognostic score that defines three risk groups among patients with AdvSM and may improve up-front treatment stratification for these rare hematologic neoplasms.