Predictive Model of Listeria monocytogenes Growth in Queso Fresco

Listeria monocytogenes is a hardy psychrotrophic pathogen that has been linked to several cheese-related outbreaks in the United States, including a recent outbreak in which a fresh cheese (queso fresco) was implicated. The purpose of this study was to develop primary, secondary, and tertiary predictive models for the growth of L. monocytogenes in queso fresco and to validate these models using nonisothermal time and temperature profiles. A mixture of five strains of L. monocytogenes was used to inoculate pasteurized whole milk to prepare queso fresco. Ten grams of each fresh cheese sample was vacuum packaged and stored at 4, 10, 15, 20, 25, and 30°C. From samples at each storage temperature, subsamples were removed at various times and diluted in 0.1% peptone water, and bacteria were enumerated on Listeria selective agar. Growth data from each temperature were fitted using the Baranyi model as the primary model and the Ratkowsky model as the secondary model. Models were then validated using nonisothermal conditions. The Baranyi model was fitted to the isothermal growth data with acceptable goodness of fit statistics (R² = 0.928; root mean square error = 0.317). The Ratkowsky square root model was fitted to the specific growth rates at different temperatures (R² = 0.975). The tertiary model developed from these models was validated using the growth data with two nonisothermal time and temperature profiles (4 to 20°C for 19 days and 15 to 30°C for 11 days). Data for these two profiles were compared with the model prediction using an acceptable prediction zone analysis; >70% of the growth observations were within the acceptable prediction zone (between -1.0 and 0.5 log CFU/g). The model developed in this study will be useful for estimating the growth of L. monocytogenes in queso fresco. These predictions will help in estimation of the risk of listeriosis from queso fresco under extended storage and temperature abuse conditions.