Background: Coagulation and inflammation play important roles in tumor progression. This study aimed to explore the prognostic impact of combined analysis of fibrinogen and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte (NLR) ratio (F-NLR score) in locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) receiving preoperative chemoradiotherapy (pCRT) and radical surgery.
Method: Totally 317 patients were included. X-tile analysis was used to determine the optimal cutoff values of preoperative fibrinogen and NLR. F-NLR scores were defined as 2 (both high fibrinogen and NLR), 1 (one of these abnormalities), or 0 (neither abnormality). Time-dependent ROC analysis was used to evaluate the predictive accuracy of fibrinogen, NLR, and F-NLR score. Cox regression analysis was performed to evaluate the prognostic impact of the F-NLR score. A predictive nomogram for disease-free survival (DFS) was developed and validated internally.
Results: One hundred and seventeen (36.9%), 156 (49.2%), and 44 (13.9%) patients had F-NLR score of 0, 1, and 2, respectively. Higher F-NLR score was associated with poorly differentiated tumors, deeper tumor invasion, lymph node metastasis, and more advanced pTNM stage (all P < 0.05). The 5-year OS rates in the F-NLR 0, 1, and 2 groups were 93.6%, 87.3%, and 68.4%, respectively (P < 0.001), while the 5-year DFS rates were 91.8%, 76.8%, and 56.1%, respectively (P < 0.001). Cox regression analysis demonstrated that F-NLR score (F-NLR 1, HR = 2.021, P = 0.046; F-NLR 2, HR = 3.356, P = 0.002), pTNM stage III (HR = 3.109, P = 0.009), and circumferential resection margin (CRM) involvement (HR = 3.120, P = 0.021) were independently associated with DFS. A nomogram for DFS was developed (C-index 0.708).
Conclusion: F-NLR score is a promising predictor for disease recurrence in LARC patients after pCRT.