Piecewise-constant optimal control strategies for controlling the outbreak of COVID-19 in the Irish population

Math Biosci. 2020 Dec:330:108496. doi: 10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108496. Epub 2020 Oct 16.

Abstract

We introduce a deterministic SEIR model and fit it to epidemiological data for the COVID-19 outbreak in Ireland. We couple the model to economic considerations - we formulate an optimal control problem in which the cost to the economy of the various non-pharmaceutical interventions is minimized, subject to hospital admissions never exceeding a threshold value corresponding to health-service capacity. Within the framework of the model, the optimal strategy of disease control is revealed to be one of disease suppression, rather than disease mitigation.

Keywords: Optimal control; SEIR model; Simulated annealing.

MeSH terms

  • Basic Reproduction Number / statistics & numerical data
  • Betacoronavirus*
  • Biostatistics
  • COVID-19
  • Communicable Disease Control / economics
  • Communicable Disease Control / methods
  • Computer Simulation
  • Coronavirus Infections / economics
  • Coronavirus Infections / epidemiology*
  • Coronavirus Infections / prevention & control
  • Disease Outbreaks / economics
  • Disease Outbreaks / prevention & control
  • Disease Outbreaks / statistics & numerical data
  • Humans
  • Ireland / epidemiology
  • Models, Economic
  • Models, Statistical
  • Pandemics* / economics
  • Pandemics* / prevention & control
  • Pneumonia, Viral / economics
  • Pneumonia, Viral / epidemiology*
  • Pneumonia, Viral / prevention & control
  • SARS-CoV-2