A dynamic analysis of the relationship between investor sentiment and stock market realized volatility: Evidence from China

PLoS One. 2020 Dec 4;15(12):e0243080. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0243080. eCollection 2020.

Abstract

Investor sentiment is a research focus in behavior finance. This paper chooses five proxy variables according to China's reality and uses a two-step principal component analysis to construct an investor sentiment index. The five proxy variables are the number of new stock accounts, turnover ratio, margin balance, net active purchasing amount, and investor attention. In the final part of this study, using the price data from the Shanghai and Shenzhen Security Exchange, this paper investigates the dynamic relationship between investor sentiment and stock market realized volatility based on the thermal optimal path. The empirical results show that when the market fluctuates severely, investor sentiment leads stock market realized volatility over one or two steps. The prediction power is also checked. The results indicate that investor sentiment indeed forecasts the realized volatility. This research supports regulators and financial institutions in taking advanced measures.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • China
  • Commerce / economics*
  • Forecasting
  • Humans
  • Investments / economics*
  • Models, Economic
  • Principal Component Analysis

Grants and funding

The authors thank the supports from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC nos. 71701127, 71803132, 71971134), and Cruise Program of Science and Technology Ministry of China with Grant Number 2018-473. The website of National Natural Science Foundation of China is http://www.nsfc.gov.cn/. The website of Science and Technology Ministry of China is http://www.most.gov.cn/. The funders don’t play any role in the study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.