A Multi-Gene Signature of Non-Muscle-Invasive Bladder Cancer Identifies Patients Who Respond to Immunotherapies Including Bacillus Calmette-Guérin and Immune Checkpoint Inhibitors

Approximately 75% of bladder cancer cases originate as non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC). Despite initial diagnosis, NMIBC commonly recurs, with up to 45% advancing to muscle-invasive bladder cancer (MIBC) and metastatic disease. Treatment for high-risk NMIBC typically includes procedures like transurethral resection and, depending on recurrence risk, intravesical chemotherapy or immunotherapy such as Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG). However, persistent shortages of BCG necessitate alternative first-line treatments. We aim to use a multi-gene signature in high-risk NMIBC patients to determine whether patients may benefit from immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) as an alternative to BCG and to evaluate their clinical utility. The multi-gene signature obtained from the three independent NMIBC cohorts was applied to stratify the UROMOL2016 cohort (n = 476) using consensus clustering. Each subtype was distinguished by biological pathway analysis. Validation analysis using a machine learning algorithm was performed in six independent cohorts including the BRS (n = 283) cohort treated with BCG and the IMvigor210 (n = 298) clinical trials treated with PD-L1 inhibitors. Based on consensus cluster analysis, NMIBC patients in the UROMOL2016 cohort were classified into three classes exhibiting distinguished characteristics, including DNA damage repair (DDR). Survival analysis showed that the NMIBC-DDR class had the highest rates of disease progression (progression-free survival, p = 0.002 by log-rank test) in the UROMOL cohort and benefited from BCG and ICIs (respectively, p = 0.02 and p = 0.03 by log-rank test). This study suggests that the multi-gene signature may have a role in identifying high-risk NMIBC patients and improving the responsiveness of ICIs. Additionally, we propose immunotherapy as a new first-line treatment for patients with high-risk NMIBC because of the shortage of BCG supply. It is important to help more patients prioritize cancer immunotherapy.