Evidence synthesis: fixed-effect model results

Ana Duarte; Teumzghi Mebrahtu; Pedro Saramago Goncalves; Melissa Harden; Ruth Murphy; Stephen Palmer; Nerys Woolacott; Mark Rodgers; Claire Rothery

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Duarte A, Mebrahtu T, Goncalves PS, et al. Adalimumab, etanercept and ustekinumab for treating plaque psoriasis in children and young people: systematic review and economic evaluation. Southampton (UK): NIHR Journals Library; 2017 Nov. (Health Technology Assessment, No. 21.64.)

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Appendix 6Evidence synthesis: fixed-effect model results

TABLE 100

Network meta-analysis results for PASI response for analysis 2 assuming a fixed-effects approach: probability of achieving a PASI 50, 75 and 90 response

Treatment	Analysis 2: fixed-effects approach
Treatment	PASI 50, mean (95% CrI)	PASI 75, mean (95% CrI)	PASI 90, mean (95% CrI)	r
Placebo	0.212 (0.20 to 0.23)	0.087 (0.08 to 0.10)	0.020 (0.02 to 0.02)	5
Etanercept	0.726 (0.68 to 0.77)	0.517 (0.47 to 0.57)	0.259 (0.22 to 0.30)	3
Ustekinumab	0.863 (0.84 to 0.89)	0.704 (0.67 to 0.74)	0.439 (0.40 to 0.48)	2
Adalimumab	0.868 (0.84 to 0.90)	0.711 (0.67 to 0.76)	0.447 (0.40 to 0.50)	1
Methotrexate	0.369 (0.28 to 0.47)	0.187 (0.13 to 0.26)	0.099 (0.03 to 0.09)	4
Residual deviance, mean (95% CI)	938.5^a (921.2 to 959.8)
DIC	1790.3

: r, ranking of treatments according to point estimates.
a: Compared with 209 data points.

TABLE 101

Network meta-analysis results for PASI response for analysis 2a (placebo adjusted) assuming a fixed-effects approach: probability of achieving a PASI 50, 75 and 90 response

Treatment	Analysis 2a: fixed-effects approach
Treatment	PASI 50, mean (95% CrI)	PASI 75, mean (95% CrI)	PASI 90, mean (95% CrI)	r
Placebo	0.147 (0.13 to 0.17)	0.051 (0.04 to 0.06)	0.010 (0.01 to 0.01)	5
Etanercept	0.595 (0.55 to 0.65)	0.367 (0.32 to 0.42)	0.148 (0.12 to 0.18)	3
Ustekinumab	0.862 (0.83 to 0.89)	0.695 (0.65 to 0.74)	0.422 (0.37 to 0.47)	1
Adalimumab	0.821 (0.79 to 0.85)	0.632 (0.59 to 0.68)	0.356 (0.31 to 0.40)	2
Methotrexate	0.552 (0.49 to 0.62)	0.326 (0.27 to 0.39)	0.124 (0.09 to 0.16)	4
Residual deviance, mean (95% CI)	406.3^a (385.7 to 431.4)
DIC	1259.5

: r, ranking of treatments according to point estimates.
a: Compared with 209 data points.

Copyright © Queen’s Printer and Controller of HMSO 2017. This work was produced by Duarte et al. under the terms of a commissioning contract issued by the Secretary of State for Health. This issue may be freely reproduced for the purposes of private research and study and extracts (or indeed, the full report) may be included in professional journals provided that suitable acknowledgement is made and the reproduction is not associated with any form of advertising. Applications for commercial reproduction should be addressed to: NIHR Journals Library, National Institute for Health Research, Evaluation, Trials and Studies Coordinating Centre, Alpha House, University of Southampton Science Park, Southampton SO16 7NS, UK.

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Duarte A, Mebrahtu T, Goncalves PS, et al. Adalimumab, etanercept and ustekinumab for treating plaque psoriasis in children and young people: systematic review and economic evaluation. Southampton (UK): NIHR Journals Library; 2017 Nov. (Health Technology Assessment, No. 21.64.) Appendix 6, Evidence synthesis: fixed-effect model results.
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