Increasing trend of extreme rain events over India in a warming environment

Science. 2006 Dec 1;314(5804):1442-5. doi: 10.1126/science.1132027.

Abstract

Against a backdrop of rising global surface temperature, the stability of the Indian monsoon rainfall over the past century has been a puzzle. By using a daily rainfall data set, we show (i) significant rising trends in the frequency and the magnitude of extreme rain events and (ii) a significant decreasing trend in the frequency of moderate events over central India during the monsoon seasons from 1951 to 2000. The seasonal mean rainfall does not show a significant trend, because the contribution from increasing heavy events is offset by decreasing moderate events. A substantial increase in hazards related to heavy rain is expected over central India in the future.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't