Cardiovascular risk factors predict survival in middle-aged men during 50 years

Objectives: We aimed at studying the expectancy of life in middle-aged men as a function of several personal characteristics and risk factors.

Material and methods: A sample of 1712 Italian men aged 40-59, first examined in 1960, was followed-up for mortality for 50 years. The length of survival was estimated as a function of 48 personal characteristics and risk factors using the multiple linear regression.

Results: In 50 years 1672 men died (97.7%) and 40 survived (2.3%). Twenty risk factors, most of which were never measured in previous studies of such duration, proved to be significant, for the estimation of survival with an overall adjusted R(2) of 0.3236. They were: age, 4 anthropometric measurements (body mass index, and its squared term, laterality-linearity index, shoulder/pelvis shape), mean blood pressure, father and mother history of premature (<65-year) death, marital status, arm circumference, 2 respiratory measurements (vital capacity and forced expiratory volume), serum cholesterol, corneal arcus, xantelasma, cancer, cardiovascular diseases, diabetes and chronic bronchitis. Coefficients of 5 suitable risk factors became definitely larger after adjustment for regression dilution bias with 5 year data. All 40 cases of survival were located in the higher 5 deciles of estimated survival and 25 (62.5%) were in the upper decile.

Conclusion: A small number of risk factors and personal characteristics, mainly known as cardiovascular risk factors and measured once in middle-aged men, are strongly associated with the length of survival in a 50-year follow-up.