Schistosomiasis has long been a threat to villagers in hilly and mountainous areas of southwestern China where the intermediate snail host is abundant. In recent years our group has focused on the development and parameterization of a community-level mathematical model of S. japonicum transmission that accounts for the role of environmental determinants of transmission intensity in Sichuan Province. To date the model has not incorporated acquired immunity. A review of previous epidemiologic data from our study area in Sichuan suggested modeling of acquired immunity as a function of history of infection. To explore the potential impacts on the dynamics of transmission, a mathematical representation of acquired immunity was incorporated, and parameterized based on this epidemiological evidence. It is shown through simulation that the effect of immunity is to reduce the rate of worm development and thereby lower the endemic level significantly. The effect was more striking at increasing levels of a village'tm)s basic reproductive number. Further, residual immunity modestly alters the threshold of external parasite input necessary to trigger re-emergence of transmission and its subsequent rate of development. Despite limitations in our quantitative knowledge of the immunity function, these findings, along with the uncertainties in transmission dynamics at low infection levels, underscore the need for improved diagnostic methods for disease control, especially in potentially re-emergent settings.
Keywords: Basic reproductive number; China; Equilibrium; Infection-induced immunity; Mathematical modeling; Schistosoma japonicum.
Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.