Estimates of mortality attributable to air pollution in China showed large differences among various studies, mainly arising from differences in exposure assessments and choice of the concentration-response function. The Chinese national monitoring network recently has included direct measurements of PM2.5 (particulates with aerodynamic diameter≤2.5μm), providing a potentially more reliable exposure assessment. We estimated adult premature mortalities due to PM2.5 across China in 2013 and mortality benefits for scenarios in which China meets the World Health Organization (WHO) Air Quality Guidelines (AQG) and three interim targets (ITs) for PM2.5. Attributable adult mortalities were estimated with assimilated spatial PM2.5 concentrations across China based on direct PM2.5 measurements from 506 PM2.5 monitoring sites and a regional air quality model, and using the integrated exposure-response model. Our results show that in China, 83% of the population lived in areas where PM2.5 concentrations exceeded the Chinese Ambient Air Quality Standard of 35μgm(-3). Premature mortalities attributed to PM2.5 nationwide were 1.37 million in total, and 0.69, 0.38, 0.13, and 0.17 million for stroke, ischemic heart disease, lung cancer, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, respectively. High population density areas exhibited the highest health risks attributed to air pollution. The mortality benefits will be 23%, 39%, 66%, and 83% of the total present premature mortalities (1.37 million mortalities) when PM2.5 concentrations in China meet the WHO IT-1, IT-2, IT-3, and AQG, respectively. Our study shows that integrating PM2.5 concentrations based on the national monitoring network with the regional air quality model provides an advanced exposure estimate method with potentials to further improve the accuracy for mortality estimate; much higher health benefits could be achieved if China adopted more stringent WHO guidelines for PM2.5.
Keywords: Attributable mortalities; Data assimilation; Integrated exposure-response model; Monitoring network; PM(2.5).
Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.