Global effectiveness of group decision-making strategies in coping with forage and price variabilities in commercial rangelands: A modelling assessment

This paper presents a modelling study that evaluated the global effectiveness of a range of group decision-making strategies for commercial farming areas in rangelands affected by temporal variations in forage production. The assessment utilised an integrated system dynamics model (86 equations) to examine the broad and long-term group decision outcomes. This model considers aspects usually neglected in related studies, such as the dynamics of the main local prices, the dynamics of the number of active farmers, the supplementary feeding of livestock, and certain behavioural traits of farmers and traders. The assessment procedure was based on an analysis of the outcomes of the model under 330,000 simulation scenarios. The results indicated that only if all the farmers in an area are either opportunistic or conservative that is, are either responsive or unresponsive to expected profits, the exploitation of the grazing resources were optimal in some senses. A widespread opportunism proved optimal only from an economic viewpoint. However, it is very unlikely that most of the farmers would agree to be opportunistic in practice. By contrast, a widespread conservatism, which in principle is perfectly feasible, proved optimal from economic, social, and ecological perspectives. Notably, it was found that the presence of a relatively small number of opportunistic farmers would suffice to considerably reduce the economic results of widespread conservatism.