Novel clinical and radiomic predictors of rapid disease progression phenotypes among lung cancer patients treated with immunotherapy: An early report

Objectives: Immune-checkpoint blockades have exhibited durable responses and improved long-term survival in a subset of advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients. However, highly predictive markers of positive and negative responses to immunotherapy are a significant unmet clinical need. The objective of this study was to identify clinical and computational image-based predictors of rapid disease progression phenotypes in NSCLC patients treated with immune-checkpoint blockades.

Materials and methods: Using time-to-progression (TTP) and/or tumor growth rates, rapid disease progression phenotypes were developed including hyperprogressive disease. The pre-treatment baseline predictors that were used to identify these phenotypes included patient demographics, clinical data, driver mutations, hematology data, and computational image-based features (radiomics) that were extracted from pre-treatment computed tomography scans. Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique (SMOTE) was used to subsample minority groups to eliminate classification bias. Patient-level probabilities were calculated from the final clinical-radiomic models to subgroup patients by progression-free survival (PFS).

Results: Among 228 NSCLC patients treated with single agent or double agent immunotherapy, we identified parsimonious clinical-radiomic models with modest to high ability to predict rapid disease progression phenotypes with area under the receiver-operator characteristics ranging from 0.804 to 0.865. Patients who had TTP < 2 months or hyperprogressive disease were classified with 73.41% and 82.28% accuracy after SMOTE subsampling, respectively. When the patient subgroups based on patient-level probabilities were analyzed for survival outcomes, patients with higher probability scores had significantly worse PFS.

Conclusions: The models found in this study have potential important translational implications to identify highly vulnerable NSCLC patients treated with immunotherapy that experience rapid disease progression and poor survival outcomes.