Baux Score as a Predictor of Mortality at the CHBAH Adult Burns Unit

Background: The Chris Hani Baragwanath Academic Hospital (CHBAH) Adult Burns Unit (ABU) often operates in excess of its capacity. Our aim was to investigate the risk factor profile of the ABU population and to apply the Baux score as a model for predicting mortality to assist with appropriate resource allocation.

Methods: In this retrospective study, the Baux score was calibrated to the mortality rates in ABU burn population and the effects of various variables on mortality were assessed with Mann-Whitney U-test, chi-square test, and regression analysis.

Results: The relationship between the Baux score and mortality rate was characterized by this regression equation: y = -0.0002׳ + 0.0547ײ - 2.5815× + 32.649, which was used to tabulate expected mortalities per Baux score band. Univariable regression analysis revealed that Baux score, gender, suspected inhalation injury, mechanism, and intent each had statistically significant associations with mortality (P-values <0.05), whereas the multivariable model showed that only Baux score, gender, and suspected inhalation injury were statistically significant factors in predicting mortality.

Conclusions: An increase in the Baux score is the most predictive and statistically significant risk factor and is easy to calculate. Thus, expected mortality can be determined using the Baux score band versus mortality table created in this study to assist with prioritizing patients in a resource-limited environment.