Understanding Unreported Cases in the COVID-19 Epidemic Outbreak in Wuhan, China, and the Importance of Major Public Health Interventions

Zhihua Liu; Pierre Magal; Ousmane Seydi; Glenn Webb

doi:10.3390/biology9030050

Understanding Unreported Cases in the COVID-19 Epidemic Outbreak in Wuhan, China, and the Importance of Major Public Health Interventions

Biology (Basel). 2020 Mar 8;9(3):50. doi: 10.3390/biology9030050.

Authors

Zhihua Liu¹, Pierre Magal^{2

3}, Ousmane Seydi⁴, Glenn Webb⁵

Affiliations

¹ School of Mathematical Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China.
² Université de Bordeaux, IMB, UMR 5251, F-33400 Talence, France.
³ CNRS, IMB, UMR 5251, F-33400 Talence, France.
⁴ Département Tronc Commun, École Polytechnique de Thiés, Thies 21001, Senegal.
⁵ Mathematics Department, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, TN 37212, USA.

Abstract

We develop a mathematical model to provide epidemic predictions for the COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan, China. We use reported case data up to 31 January 2020 from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention and the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission to parameterize the model. From the parameterized model, we identify the number of unreported cases. We then use the model to project the epidemic forward with varying levels of public health interventions. The model predictions emphasize the importance of major public health interventions in controlling COVID-19 epidemics.

Keywords: corona virus; epidemic mathematical model; isolation; public closings; quarantine; reported and unreported cases.