Research on COVID-19 based on ARIMA modelΔ-Taking Hubei, China as an example to see the epidemic in Italy

Qiuying Yang; Jie Wang; Hongli Ma; Xihao Wang

doi:10.1016/j.jiph.2020.06.019

Research on COVID-19 based on ARIMA model^Δ-Taking Hubei, China as an example to see the epidemic in Italy

J Infect Public Health. 2020 Oct;13(10):1415-1418. doi: 10.1016/j.jiph.2020.06.019. Epub 2020 Jun 20.

Authors

Qiuying Yang¹, Jie Wang², Hongli Ma², Xihao Wang²

Affiliations

¹ School of Biomedical Engineering, Capital Medical University, Beijing Key Laboratory of Fundamental Research on Biomechanics in Clinical Application, Beijing 100069, China. Electronic address: yangqiuying@ccmu.edu.cn.
² School of Basic Medical Sciences, Capital Medical University, Beijing 100069, China.

Abstract

COVID-19 has spread throughout the world; various forecast models have been used to predict the development of the pandemic. The number of new cases from the outbreak to zero has gone through a complete cycle in Hubei, China, on lockdown over coronavirus. So, we created the time series ARIMA models for new cases and new deaths daily during this period. Moreover, these models have been used in Italy, which has the same population conditions and on lockdown as Hubei, in order to predict the epidemic in Italy in the next ten days and provide a theoretical basis for the development of pandemics in some countries in the future.

Keywords: ARIMA; COVID-19; Hubei; Italy.

Publication types

Validation Study

MeSH terms

Betacoronavirus
COVID-19
China / epidemiology
Coronavirus Infections / epidemiology*
Forecasting / methods
Humans
Italy / epidemiology
Models, Statistical
Pandemics / statistics & numerical data*
Pneumonia, Viral / epidemiology*
SARS-CoV-2